Happy new year! 🥂
We are now getting into the meat of the 2020s.
Gordon Moore first posited his Law in 1965. He may have been referring to the number of transistors in an integrated circuit but basically that equates to computing power. Computing power equates to technological advance. If computing power has doubled every 2 years since the mid-60s we are on the 29 or 30th doubling, depending on how you want to count. [Don’t read all these numbers, a glance will suffice.]
- 1 + 1 = 2
- 2 + 2 = 4
- 4 + 4 = 8
- 8 + 8 = 16
- 16 + 16 = 32
- 32 + 32 = 64
- 164 + 164 = 128
- 128 + 128 = 256
- 256 + 256 = 512
- 512 + 512 = 1024
- 1024 + 1024 = 2048
- 4096 + 4096 = 8192
- 8192 + 8192 = 16,384
- 16,384 + 16,384 = 32,768
- 32,768 + 32,768 = 65,536
- 65,536 + 65,536 = 131,072
- 131,072 + 131,072 = 262,144
- 262,144 + 262,144 = 524,288
- 524,288 + 524,288 = 1,048,576
- 1,048,576 + 1,048,576 = 2,097,152
- 2,097,152 + 2,097,152 = 4,194,304
- 4,194,304 + 4,194,304 = 8,388,608
- 8,388,608 + 8,388,608 = 16,777,216
- 16,777,216 + 16,777,216 = 33,554,432
- 33,554,432 + 33,554,432 = 67,108,864
- 67,108,864 + 67,108,864 = 134,217,728
- 134,217,728 + 134,217,728 = 268,435,456
- 268,435,456 + 268,435,456 = 536,870,912
- 536,870,912 + 536,870,912 = 1,073,741,824
- 1,073,741,824 + 1,073,741,824 = 2,147,483,648
- 2,147,483,648 + 2,147,483,648 = 4,294,967,296
- 4,294,967,296 + 4,294,967,296 = 8,589,934,592
- 8,589,934,592 + 8,589,934,592 = 17,179,869,184
- 17,179,869,184 + 17,179,869,184 = 34,359,738,368
The point is not the specific numbers in this list but how each doubling in compute power is getting very significant. Each double represents not just a double in compute power but in technological advancement.
Who knows how long Moore’s Law will continue, but it would appear us humans and our technology are in an exponential age. AI and robots may be here but we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Here are 24 of my mostly stock-related predictions for 2024:
- $IWM closed 2023 at $200.71 and will get to $277+ for a 38% annual gain. 2023 was the rise of mega caps, now it is small caps turn to lead the bull run.
- $QQQ closed 2023 at $409.52 and will get to $500+ for a 22% annual gain. Nice but nowhere near the 52% gain in 2023. Small caps time to shine.
- $SPY closed 2023 at $475.31 and will get to $525+ for a 10% annual gain. Nice but nowhere near the 23% gain in 2023. Small caps time to shine.
- Interest rates in US will get 3 cuts of 25 bps taking the Fed Fund Rate to 4.75%. There were 4 raises in 2023.
- Oil will continue to channel. Economic growth will increase demand for energy, but led by EVs, the demand is for better energy than fossil fuels provide. $USO stays below $90.
- $KWEB closed 2023 at $27.00 and will get to $40+ as China prints money or whatever they do to stimulate their economy that has struggled for the past 3 years.
- Gold, after getting rebuked a little above $2000 4 times since 2020 will finally breakout and test $2300 as gold bugs try to keep up with Bitcoiners.
- Bitcoin will be over $100,000 at year end as the US spot ETF and the halving spur the next bull run in crypto.
- Ethereum will be breaking above its all-time high of $4868.
- $TSLA closed 2023 at $248.48 and will get to $340+ for a 37% annual gain. The real fun will be in 2025 when Model 2 is imminent, Semis are in full production, bots are working in Tesla factories, FSD ready to break out of beta, and energy becomes a meaningful revenue contributor.
- $AAPL closed 2023 at $192.53 and will get to $222+ for a 15% annual gain. VisionPro is going to be a tough sell to start and overall growth will be slow until Siri gets AI immersion to become a real AI agent for all with an iPhone.
- $MSFT closed 2023 at $376.04 and will get to $444+ for a 18% annual gain. They are a steamroller.
- $AMZN closed 2023 at $151.94 and will get to $188+ for a 24% annual gain. More revenue moving to the bottom line will make more market cap.
- $ENPH closed 2023 at $132.14 and will get to $205+ for a 55% annual gain. Solar suffered immensely in 2023. There shall be light at the end of the tunnel in 2024 setting up for a big 2025 as people realize the benefits to their expenses of every rooftop having solar panels.
- $SOFI closed 2023 at $9.95 and will get to $17+ for a 70% annual gain. Profitability begins in 2024.
- $PLTR closed 2023 at $17.17 and will get to $25+ for a 45% annual gain. Steamroller in the making.
- $NVDA closed 2023 at $495.22 and will get to $600+ for a 21% annual gain. Growth has been explosive, it pretty much has to taper a bit.
- $CRWD closed 2023 at $255.32 and will get to $340+ for a 33% annual gain. As long as the hacks aren’t on systems they protect, they will grow, a lot.
- $SPOT closed 2023 at $187.91 and will get to $250+ for a 33% annual gain. Profitability begins in 2024.
- $CRSP closed 2023 at $62.60 and will get to $100+ for a 60% annual gain. And they are still a couple years away from it being their time to shine.
- $NVO closed 2023 at $103.45 and will get to $140+ for a 35% annual gain. Everyone and their dog wants Ozempic these days.
- Geopolitics will continue to be problematic. Iran is going to do something they will ultimately regret.
- President of the United States will be someone other than Biden or Trump. Could be a Kennedy.
- Super Bowl will go to the Niners, Stanley Cup to Avalanche, World Series to Dodgers. The US will not win the gold in Olympic Break Dancing.
Remember, these are just predictions. Don’t take them to the bank. Many will be wrong. Last year I got 7.5 out of 23 for 32.6%.
